Choosing Between Competing Programs
Choosing the program with the highest forecast return is not portfolio management.
It is spreadsheet management.
When two programs compete for the same money, Portfolio Investment Arbitration uses four screens:
Driving-force fit
Strength versus weakness
Product-line gap
Replacement of a profitable product nearing end of useful life
If two programmes still appear tied after those screens, the problem may not be the ranking method.
The budget may simply be too small for the strategy.
Portfolio decisions are allocation decisions. The real question is not only which programme looks attractive in isolation, but which use of capital and capacity best advances the product business.

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